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Unemployment On the Uptick Again?

Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month, when unemployment numbers get released. This morning, Gallup released the results of its survey. It announced that,

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly from 7.0% for October. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3%, nearly a one-point increase over October’s rate.

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The article went on wonder how the unemployment rate could have possibly risen again in November, after dropping right before the November Election. It speculated “superstorm Sandy” or “lackluster holiday hiring is to blame”.

Of course, it certainly couldn’t be related to the re-election of President Obama or the fiscal cliff now, could it?

Update: Unemployment drops to 7.7% — specifically, and only, because more than 500,000 workers dropped out of the workforce entirely.

Simpson-Bowles Redux


There have been renewed talk about reviving the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles recommendations as a Republican bargaining strategy. Though the package isn’t perfect – Republicans cringe at the tax increases while Democrats despise the spending cuts – in many ways, it seems better and more reasonable than some of the other offers currently on the table.

Simpson-Bowles could work under two circumstances: 1) Congress must first repeal the $1 trillion/year spending binge we’ve seen during the first Obama administration and start at FY2008 budget levels; and 2) the deal must include the healthcare revisions that were contained (and subsequently removed by Obama before the final draft) in the original Simpson-Bowles negotiations.

The virtues of Simpson-Bowles right now are that it includes entitlement reform, reigns in spending better than other current proposals, simplifies the tax code, and most importantly, is a bipartisan commission that originated from President Obama. Simpson-Bowles isn’t perfect, but it could be doable. And because Simpson-Bowles originally had more Democrat support than Republican support, it would put the Democrats in a tough spot if they rejected it now during the fiscal cliff talks.

Coming off the fresh wounds of the staggering Romney loss, the Simpson-Bowles package may be just what the Republicans need as a rallying point in order to emerge as the winners of this current standoff crisis.

Crossposted at redstate.com

Stephen Moore and the Fallacy of “Fair Share”


I just read Stephen Moore’s new book “Who’s the Fairest of Them All? The Truth About Opportunity, Taxes, and Wealth in America“. Thomas Sowell gave it a nod last week when he wryly observed,

If everyone in America had read Stephen Moore’s new book, “Who’s The Fairest of Them All?”, Barack Obama would have lost the election in a landslide. The point here is not to say, “Where was Stephen Moore when we needed him?” A more apt question might be, “Where was the whole economics profession when we needed them?” Where were the media? For that matter, where were the Republicans?

Indeed. This book does a great job in a little over 100 pages of expelling the myth that “the rich need to pay their fair share” by showing with quantitative data that cutting taxes spurs economic growth, and that tax cuts increase tax revenue collection. These are some of the very topics I’ve written about before on this site.

We need to let the “Bush tax cuts” continue. Except that they really aren’t the Bush tax cuts anymore — they’ve been the law for 10 years. Let’s stop pretending they are “very temporary” and either extend them again long term or else make them permanent.

We also need to overhaul the tax code. With the IRC reforms of 1986, Reagan reduced the tax rates to 28% in exchange for getting rid of the tax shelters. As a result, the amount of federal income collected was more at 28% and a clean tax code than at 91% and tax shelters, because at 28%, it really wasn’t worth the time, cost, and effort to hide money.

We need comprehensive tax reform, but not the type that Obama is pushing. His policies of more “tax credits” (which is government spending run through the tax code) and marginal rate increases hampers our recovery. If the federal tax rates are going to rise again – and they will, unfortunately, if Obama has his way – in addition to state and local tax hikes, the tax burden in this country will be staggering. People will do one of two things: 1) start finding ways not to pay it like they did when the rates were outrageous or 2) stop working and investing so much because it’s just going to get taken away from them. When that happens, the economy worsens — and it is already suffering enough. We need to simplify the tax code.

Back to the book — I would heartily recommend it, and also check out Sowell’s overview of it.

Left Behind Logic: Raising Taxes Hurts the Economy, So Let’s Have More Stimulus!


President Obama has all but admitted that raising the tax margin on the top 2%/”millionaires and billionaires”/the wealthy might, just might, affect the economy negatively. Anticipating increased economic decline when he pushes up the rate from 35% to 39.6%, Obama has proposed another successful round of stimulus.

What might this new stimulus look like?

Extending the 2 percentage point Social Security payroll tax cut, boosting a tax incentive to businesses, establishing a $50 billion bank for long-term infrastructure projects, and extending unemployment benefits.

And the cost to taxpayers?

An estimated $255 billion total — which the GOP would surely need to demand that it be matched dollar-for-dollar in extra spending cuts.

So, let’s recount the logic of the Left:

Raise taxes –> Economy falters due to less consumption spending —> Need to spend $255 billion in government money to prop up the economy.

How about some other logic?

Keep tax rates the same as they’ve been for 10 years —> Economy gets a chance to recover without government interference and economic uncertainty —> No need to spend another $255 billion of taxpayer money

Some have suggested these are merely bargaining chips for the budget discussions. However, if Obama was so sure about his economic policies, and if these policies were really so good, he wouldn’t need to “spend” more or bargain any.

AMT: Is It Necessary?


The IRS is reminding taxpayers and Congress alike that if the annual “AMT patch” isn’t renewed before the end of the year, millions of taxpayers (28 million) would be on the hook for thousands more per person in tax payments.

But we need more than just a “patch”. We need to eliminate the AMT from the tax code. Here’s why:

The Alternative Minimum Tax (“AMT”) presents hardships to the practitioner as well as the taxpayer who prepares his own return by, as its name implies, imposing a second tax calculation mechanism on taxpayers. It serves virtually no useful purpose, other than the raising of an ever-increasing amount of tax revenue. But it has become very clear in recent years that this AMT tax revenue is not coming from just the taxpayers who were the intended targets of this tax.

The AMT was instituted in its present form when the prior “add on” Minimum Tax was transformed into the AMT in the early 1980’s. Its  stated purpose was to require that all taxpayers paid at least a fair share of tax. It was to do this by identifying “loophole” type deductions, also known as “preferences”. There would then be an alternative calculation using lower tax rates applied against this taxable income as increased by the preferences. Whichever of the taxes is higher is the one the taxpayer must pay.

However the AMT was seriously flawed from the outset. Instead of focusing on these loophole type preferences (which would have limited the tax to a very small number of tax law “abusers”), the law that was passed included items that were not loopholes at all. A convoluted formula compares the differences between income and deductions to determine who falls under the guidelines.

A very substantial majority of all AMT paid by taxpayers results from the following four factors:
  1. Treating state and local taxes as a preference
  2. Treating miscellaneous deductions as a preference
  3. Allowing lower exemptions than the regular tax.

Each of these, however, can be quickly shown as inappropriate factors with which to base a tax system intended to just make sure everyone pays a “fair share” of tax.

  1. State and local taxes are hardly a loophole. The taxes exacted by state and local governments are hardly “voluntarily” paid by taxpayers in an attempt to avoid paying federal taxes.
  2. Miscellaneous deductions is the category of deductions that consists primarily of expenses incurred to earn income that is subject to tax. It includes unreimbursed employee expenses, investment expenses, etc. This is the most basic and important deduction needed to have a truly fair income tax system. For example, if an individual pays a lawyer a fee for collecting back wages, the legal fee is a miscellaneous deduction. If an individual pays the lawyer $300 for collecting $1000 of back pay, netting $700, the AMT would tax the individual on the full $1000.
  3. The exemption available under the AMT tax system is a fixed dollar amount which, unlike exemptions and standard deductions under the regular tax system, is not indexed for inflation. Furthermore, it is phased out entirely over certain income levels.  And each year Congress has to approve an annual “patch”, which raises the threshold for inflation, in order to raise the exemption limits of the tax so that less wealthy taxpayers won’t be subject to the AMT.

It must be noted that the annual AMT patch is not a tax cut at all, but merely the avoidance of a massive tax increase on millions of middle-income taxpayers’ families. Congress likes to point to the patch as some major revenue loss, had the AMT been applied to those families, as an excuse to raise to raise taxes in order to offset this “potential missing tax revenue”.

The AMT in its present form has no place in tax law.  The AMT does not serve the purpose for which it was intended and functions in a most inequitable manner while adding enormous compliance burdens. It should therefore be changed to eliminate the adjustments for state and local taxes and miscellaneous deductions, update its rates, and modify its exemption — or else the AMT needs to be eliminated completely.

crossposted at redstate.com/alanjoelny

Mr. President, It’s Not A Mandate For Taxes


In an interview a week before Election Day, President Obama declared that if he won again, it would be mandate for making cuts, but also for raising taxes on the highest income earners.

Reviewing Election Day exit poll data, however, tells a different story.

Looking at the voting patterns broken down by income earning amounts (based on 2011 total family income), there are only TWO categories out of six that Obama won more than 50% of the vote. Those are:

Under $30,000: Obama 63% Romney 35%
$30,000 – $49,999: Obama 57% Romney 42%

The other four out of the six categories had Romney with over 50% of the vote. Those are:

$50,000 – $99,999: Obama 46% Romney 52%
$100,000 – $199,999: Obama 44% Romney 54%
$200,000 – $249,999: Obama 47% Romney 52%
$250,000 or more: Obama 42% Romney 55%

The electorate that voted from Obama – voters whose households earned under $50,000 – are also the same citizens who pay the least amount of taxes. The voters who already pay the most in taxes voted for Romney.

The only “mandate to raise taxes”, therefore, comes from the population of taxpayers who prefer others to pay more in tax so they can continue to pay less. The only clear lesson from the election is that President Obama has created class warfare as it has never been seen before.

(crossposted at redstate.com/alanjoelny)

Obamacare Is A Tax


I was talking to a small business owner the other day. He said it made more sense to “to pay a $2,000 fine than buy $6,000 insurance policy” (per employee, of course).

But there is no “fine”. It’s a “tax”. Employers who do not provide the one-size-fits-all, government-approved insurance demanded by Obamacare are taxed. And we know it’s a tax because the Supreme Court said so–in fact, if it isn’t a tax, if there is any hint that not purchasing insurance was bad behavior, Obamacare is unconstitutional.

Conservatives, people of integrity should take care to describe this payment to the government accurately: it is a tax on perfectly legal and moral behavior, not a fine for bad behavior. When you hear someone refer to the payment as a fine or hear them denigrate a business who opts to pay the tax rather than purchase insurance, be sure to remind them what the Supreme Court said.

Schwartz: Don’t Forget About Obamacare


I’ve written several articles regarding the folly of Obamacare. This morning, I read a great piece on the need to keep ObamaCare and its impact at the forefront of our discussions .

The full implementation of the Affordable Care Act needs to be a major discussion in the coming months and years, especially in 2014 when every Democratic senator elected in 2008 on the coat-tails of Barack Obama may be branded as the deciding vote to corporatize — with government sanction and force — the mandatory use of seventeen hundredths of private property.

and this:

No, we cannot forget about Obamacare. When our expectation is to have the finest product available, at the expense of another person’s property; and when life is that product, it is impossible — by the laws of economics and the laws of logic — for our nation ever to maintain its prosperity. We will create a stagnant mediocrity, grant to a faceless human authority the power to determine how much life and quality of life is “acceptable,” and elevate our dependence on that authority until property is void, liberty is nostalgia, and self-propriety — i.e., life — is nothing more than a pluralistic determination of worth.

I urge you to read the article in its entirety.

Class Warfare Won


Class warfare proved to be the winner in this election cycle as it was a key component of Obama’s policies and re-election rhetoric. The components of such a tactic were easily recognized: 1) the political opponent (Romney) will hurt those among us who are most vulnerable (elderly, poor, etc); 2) the political opponent (Romney) does not care about the “middle class”; 3) the political opponent (Romney) wants to benefit those most advantaged (the rich/elite).

The third point of this strategy was the one that resonated most with Obama supporters; he continuously and intentionally railed against “millionaires and billionaires”, and talked about “the wealthy paying their fair share” in order to create a divide and separate that particular fiscal population from the rest of “mainstream America”.

Besides the obvious baseness of such an argument coming from the President of the United States, it is critically important to note the amount of true millionaires and billionaires are so few in number, that taxing them more – as Obama plans to do – will not help with any significant deficit reduction. His assertion was pure dishonest political speech; you cannot possibly create enough revenue from the millionaire/billionaire population even if you were to tax them at 100%. Our fiscal situation is so dire in this country that an increased tax on this group in any large or small amount solves nothing in the long-term.

Unfortunately, none of this mattered to Obama. He intentionally threw the labels around so that they conveniently fit whatever emotive language would coerce voters and supporters to rally behind his outrageous monetary policies. It was classical class-warfare: antagonizing lower socio-economic groups against the “rich”. Simultaneously, he added record numbers of citizens to entitlement rolls, thereby creating a further divide. And it worked to win.

Obama has stated his intent to raise the marginal rates on the top income earners, (aka the “rich”, “wealthy”, or “top 2%”). Yet history shows us that higher tax rates results in less – not more – tax collections. Democrats like to wax poetic about the high rates of 70% and even 91%. What they fail to comprehend or deliberately don’t explain is that at those times, there were an enormous amount of tax shelters such as real estate, so that people could legally lower that taxable income and would not have to actually pay the outrageous tax rates.

With the IRC reforms of 1986, Reagan reduced the tax rates to 28% in exchange for getting rid of the tax shelters. As a result, the amount of federal income collected was more at 28% and a clean tax code than at 91% and tax shelters, because at 28%, it really wasn’t worth the time, cost, and effort to hide money. We need comprehensive tax reform, but not the type that Obama is pushing. His policies of more “tax credits” (which is government spending run through the tax code) and marginal rate increases hampers our recovery. If the federal tax rates are going to rise again – and they will – in addition to state and local tax hikes, the tax burden in this country will be staggering. People will do one of two things: 1) start finding ways not to pay it like they did when the rates were outrageous or 2) stop working and investing so much because it’s just going to get taken away from them. When that happens, the economy worsens — and it is already suffering enough.

Blindly vilifying the rich was simply a tactic Obama used to pit classes against one another for political gain. But putting it into practice? Imposing higher taxes on that segment of the population most able to invest in and aid our recovery is true economic ignorance. Why take additional money from those taxpayers who have been able to create wealth and employment successfully and give it to the government and politicians who have proven their ability to mismanage and squander income? What worked to win the White House, will not work to win the economy back.

(crossposted at redstate.com/alanjoelny)