by | ARTICLES, ECONOMY, OBAMA
John Steele Gordon’s recent Op-Ed in the WSJ opened with following observation: “The question of how to fairly and equitably tax capital gains has been a political problem since the modern personal-income tax was adopted in 1913”. Being a business/financial historian, he gives an adequate overview of the history of capital gains and how it has reached its present state. But because he is not an economist or CPA, he disingenously presents a one-sided treatment of the issue of capital gains and “carried interest” without actually exploring the merits of the tax. The result is that Gordon sounds like sour grapes on the wealthy and ultimately, he is wholly unable to answer his own question.
Gordon puts forth the notion that “carried interest” is a “cause of much recent controversy”. This much is true, in that the recently defeated Baucus/Grassley bill was attempting to “fix” carried interest because of a seemingly unfair low-tax capital gains income rate.
This is true. But so what? It’s not as though the income isn’t from capital gains. If the law was changed so that the operators were taxed at ordinary income only, it wouldn’t get rid of those gains — it would simply mean that the investors get the benefit of the capital gains lost by the operators. This fixes nothing.
Ultimately such a change, which is again being explored in Obama’s proposed budget, will merely shift the tax benefit from the operators to the investors. This takes a tax break away from people who are working for a living and gives it to millionaires who are just investing – pure hypocrisy from liberals who wish to inflict additional taxes on the wealthy at every step. It make compensation deals for hedge fund operators a bit more complicated (i.e. requiring more assistance from accountants), but the amount of compensation stays revenue neutral.
Therefore, it takes a whopping dose of either incompetence or disingenuousness from Gordon and other carried interest critics to look at the hedge fund industry and proclaim that the hedge fund operator “carried interest” is the problem that needs to be addressed.
by | ARTICLES, ECONOMY, OBAMA
Peter Ferrara pens a fantastic Op-Ed in Forbes this morning. He documents the myriad inaccuracies claimed by the Obama Administration regarding his new budget, the staggering amount of spending contained therein, and the additional taxes to be levied. He also does some cost comparison to Ryan’s budget and dispels the myth of the tax cut vs tax credit, (a point I have made many, many times as a CPA), and discusses the problems with Obama’s treatment of entitlement reform.
Some of the highlights include:
- No reduction in spending, even net reduction from expected increase in spending.
- Cancels sequestration
- “Obama’s budget proposes to spend $46.5 trillion overall over the next 10 years, even more than the Senate Democrat budget, the highest government spending in world history
- “Obama’s budget also proposes $1.1 trillion in additional tax increases, on top of the $1 trillion in tax increases already going into effect this year under Obamacare, and the $600 billion in tax increases from the expiration of the Bush tax cuts for them in January”
- Raises taxes on the middle class
- The “Buffett Rule” doubles the top capital gains tax rate from when Obama entered office — making it the 4th highest rate on the globe
- Explains the difference between tax credits and tax cuts — and how most of Obama’s so-called “cuts” are credits, which is government spending run through the tax code.
- “His own budget admits that after 10 years, the deficit would still be $439 billion, still about the highest in history before President Obama. Congressman Paul Ryan’s House Republican budget, in sharp contrast, would balance the federal budget within 10 years, with no tax increases, as scored by CBO”.
- “President Obama’s budget claims to reduce federal deficits by $1.8 trillion over the next 10 years. But that only results from calculating the effect on deficits from an “adjusted baseline” used by the Obama budget, and not the CBO baseline”.
- “Obama’s budget assumes a suddenly booming economy to result from these policies, with real GDP growth in 2016, the end of his second term, at 3.6%, more than four times the average of his first term”
- He assumes that there will not be another recession within the next 10 years
- Obama budget will “only reduce Social Security spending increases by one-fourth of one percent. Even with Obama’s “reform,” his own budget projects Social Security spending to soar over the next decade by 85%, from $768 billion last year to $1.427 trillion in 2023.
So what is the point of the President issuing a budget proposal now?
The point is to simply posture for all those low information, Twitter voters in the 2014 elections, who will hear only from all the Democrat Party propagandists at the New York Times, the Washington Post, and MSNBC and brethren. They will hear only about President Obama’s “spending cuts,” his grand, compromising, entitlement reforms, and how he is fighting for the middle class, with declining median incomes throughout his Administration, for the poor, with record, soaring poverty, and for “equality,” even as inequality has actually risen throughout his Administration. Is this generation of Americans in the process of proving America’s more than 200 year experiment with democracy a failure”
Ferrara analysis is spot on. I urge you to read the piece in its entirety.
by | BLOG, ECONOMY, OBAMA
In preparation for a talk to a group of financial people, I had to put together some numbers regarding President Obama’s “little bit more” that he has asked “the wealthiest among us” to pay. So I calculated the additional federal income taxes a high earner will pay in 2013 vs what one would have paid on the same income for 2012,
The increases are caused by 1) the increase in rates from the expiration of Bush era tax rates, and 2) the new 3.8% Obamacare tax on investment income of high income earners.
For someone making $1million, federal taxes go up by $55,700
For someone making $5million, federal taxes go up by $405,900
For someone making $10 million, federal taxes go up by $834,800
These numbers assume that the income is substantially all qualified dividends and long-term capital gains. But the increases are still approximately 90% of these amounts above if half of the income is earned income.
What’s worthwhile to note is that those numbers do not include anything from Obama’s budget proposal released last week. That proposal includes more hits to the wealthy, such as:
— implementing the “Buffett Rule” (which is no more than code for elimination of the special rate for qualified dividends and long-term capital gains)
— adding a 28% cap on tax deductions and other write-offs,
— adding a cap of $3 million on IRA and other tax-deferred retirement savings, and
— eliminating carried interest treatment for private equity, venture capital and other financial managers
Now, the president and his ardent supporters, such as Warren Buffet, Gene Sperling, Paul Krugman and other pseudo-economists, have repeatedly pushed forth the notion that the people who make America move financially — the investment bankers and equity partners — are all okay with having their taxes raised. And they further state that these substantial tax increases will not impact the amount that these individuals will invest.
Quite the contrary! I can tell you that with respect to my clients, there is a direct relationship between the amount of money they pay in taxes and the amount of money they invest.
My clients tend to invest the money left over after they have paid their (substantial) living costs and taxes. If taxes go up, the amount left to invest goes down.
There are those who will argue that “I don’t have $10 million or $5 million or even $1 million. Why should I care?” And “They have lots of money anyway — what’s the big deal?”
I submit to you that in making a decision as to whether to invest in a high risk start-up, whether as an individual or as a private equity decision-maker, the anticipated after-tax return is key. Higher tax rates therefore reduce the number of start-ups and other investments that get funded. The key to a healthy economy is investment, not consumptive spending. That is Economics IA. Hurt the investors, those with capital, and everyone is hurt.
One final thing to remember is the Obamacare effect. Remember, we were promised that Obamacare would not add one dollar to the deficit. Implicit in that was a multitude of new taxes such as the medical device tax of 2.3%.
The latest revised numbers from the CBO peg the costs of Obamacare to be $1.85 trillion through 2023. At the same time, the Heritage Foundation calculated that the 18 new taxes created for Obamacare would only raise $836 billion through that same period. Clearly, Obamacare is in a financial death spiral.
In sum, continuing to bleed the wealthy a “little bit more” (for Obamacare or other government spending) is only going to continue to hurt our economy. The problem with socialism is that we eventually run out of other people’s money.
by | ARTICLES, BLOG, ECONOMY, OBAMA, POLITICS
There was a lot of discussion this past weekend on the Sunday talk show circuit regarding the March Jobs Report released last Friday. Only 88,000 jobs were added in March. Compared to February, which added 268,000 jobs, this is a 180,000 drop. Actually, more like a plummet: economists had figured more than twice that number would be added. However, this number was the lowest jobs addition since in nine months (June 2012).
Why was this one so terrible? The pundit debate this weekend was puzzled and trying to discern the cause — Was it sequestration? The 2% payroll tax? The weather? Other? Why this anomaly when prior reports of the last few months were good. (Translation: how do we spin this atrocity?)
Here’s the truth. We haven’t had a good jobs report in nearly 5 years.
Yes, we are adding jobs, but they are not enough. We are barely adding enough jobs to cover the natural population growth. That is currently calculated (for this month) to be roughly 106,000 jobs in order to keep pace with population. In fact, this most recent report didn’t even cover that.
Yes, we are going down in unemployment (from 7.7% – 7.6%)– but not because we are adding jobs. It’s because less people are actively looking for a job. The Labor Department noted that 496,000 Americans stopped working or looking for work. That’s nearly half-a-million in one month.
This jobs report just compounds nearly 5 years of Obama’s policies. From Obamacare burdens, to increased regulation, to higher taxes, we are no where near a recovery, and really haven’t been.
If you are interested in a decent jobs calculator, the Atlanta Fed has a neat little one set up that gives you all kinds of data, percentages, etc in a multitude of categories. You can click here to play with it.
For instance, if you wanted to get the unemployment rate down to 6% over the next 12 months (a year to achieve this rate), the average monthly change in payroll employment needed to achieve the target unemployment rate would be … 303,141 jobs a month. When was the last time those numbers were consistently that high? Years…
As you can see, We haven’t been there with job creation in a long time. With Obama’s policies continuing to undermine our country and small businesses, the recovery will be continue to be excruciatingly slow and disappointing.
Crossposted at alanjoelny.com
by | BLOG, ECONOMY, NEW YORK, POLITICS
In a surprise move this week, the NY state legislature is contemplating making permanent a “temporary” tax on the wealthiest New Yorkers. (more…)
by | BLOG, ECONOMY, OBAMA, POLITICS
This is out-and-out manipulation of public opinion and playing on the emotions of Americans for political gain.
The Washington Times reported that the White House announced in an email, (more…)
by | BLOG, ECONOMY, OBAMA, POLITICS
This entire week has seen a whole gambit of sequestration blame and doomsday scenarios (no more bacon!) from the White House administration. However, over the last few days, we’ve also seen the White House changing its tune on sequestration. (more…)
by | ECONOMY, OBAMA, POLITICS
Obama’s been acting like a petulant child since his sequestration plan showed signs of backfiring. It was intended to force the Republicans to cave to his demands for yet another “balanced approach” to deficit reduction because he took the gamble that the Republicans would never, ever allow sequestration/defense cuts to happen. He tried everything from inciting fear to media collaboration to foist new taxes upon us. (more…)
by | BLOG, ECONOMY, OBAMA, POLITICS
This Wednesday, February 27, marks some watershed moments of liberty in United States History.
In 1922, the Supreme Court unanimously upheld the 19th amendment and a woman’s right to vote
In 1951, the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution was ratified, limiting a U.S. President to two terms.
In 1991, U.S. President George H.W. Bush announced live on television that “Kuwait is liberated”. (more…)
by | BLOG, ECONOMY, OBAMA, POLITICS
Picture the all-too-familiar scenario: it’s nearing a fiscal decision deadline. Congress is deadlocked over action — in this case, it’s Sequestration (large budget cuts). It’s possible that there will there will be no decision on Sequestration by March 1, because deadlines mean nothing in Congress – as we just witnessed with the Fiscal Cliff debates running over the edge.
Or are we being set up for more taxes? I’m getting a little nervous about the media dribble from the last couple of days.
First, the Weekly Standard reports that Obama said in Virginia today,
“You know, the one thing about being president is, after four years, you get pretty humble. You’d think maybe you wouldn’t but actually you become more humble–you realize what you don’t know. You realize all the mistakes you made. But you also realize you can’t do things by yourself. That’s not how our system works. You’ve got to have the help and the goodwill of Congress, and what that means is you’ve got to make sure that constituents of members of Congress are putting some pressure on them, making sure they’re doing the right thing.”
Put pressure on members of Congress? Like….Boehner? Which leads me to my second rollout:
Last night on Fox News “Special Report”. Real Clear Politics posted the video of Senator Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) telling FOX News about what would happen if Boehner “caves” and agrees to tax revenues to avoid the sequester:
“I don’t quite honestly believe that Speaker Boehner would be speaker if that happens. I think he would lose his speakership,”
And if that’s not enough, much of the the Sunday “Meet the Press” roundtable was a shill for more taxes.
David Gregory read Bob Woodward’s opinion piece pointing out that sequestration originated with Obama, the point of the article. But Gregory makes sure that he gets in their Woodward’s opinion that Obama’s “call for a balanced approach is reasonable and he makes a strong case that those in the top income brackets could and should pay more. But that was not the deal he made.”
But instead of “moderator” Gregory focusing on the point of the piece –that Obama is currently lying when he blames the GOP for Sequestration — Gregory cherry picks the revenue part (those in the top income brackets could and should pay more) and blathers on that the White House has always included revenue in any “deal”. Yet Gregory fails to remind his audience that Obama got his revenue during the Fiscal Cliff, the original Sequestration deadline.
What’s worse is that Gregory further opines, during an exchange with Former Rep Harry Ford Jr (D-TN), that “they have only rescinded something like 18 percent of the Bush tax cuts. So there is more room to go”.
So folks, over the last three days, we’ve seen discussion about the 1) reasonableness and room for more tax increases; 2) a scenario where Boehner “caves”; and 3) the President talking about putting pressure on Congress to “do the right thing” and “goodwill” and all that.
Are we being set up? Is a narrative being shaped to soften the blow over a last minute “deal” that avoids *gasp* sequestration cuts and adds in new taxes?
The thought of this potential reality is nauseating, especially knowing that tomorrow, Wednesday, February 27, we will be 1400 days without a budget.